Sunday, November 4, 2007

Hopeful not optimistic

When I look at the state of the world I’m not optimistic. I think that things can go badly wrong in many areas. But I am hopeful.

For each looming disaster I see many possible solutions—almost all of them based on new technologies. Of course it’s possible that none of them will work or will come too late. But it’s also possible that one or more will work and something good will come of it all.

Many of the predicted disasters of the past have been solved when technology changed the ground rules, the options, or the possibilities.

The problem that bothers me most is not global warming or war or the rise of corporations or the deterioration of society or whatever you may worry about. It's the fact that all systems deteriorate over time.

But so far the productivity increases that technology keeps giving us seem to grow faster than all kinds of deteriorating forces seem to increase.

It's not clear that this can contine--but it is possible. So I'm hopeful. But not optimistic.

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